The Conservatives still look short of a majority. I averaged today’s Ekos and Ipsos- Reid numbers (both surveys done January 10 to 12) and used them to calculate this seat total:
C – 137
L – 83
NDP – 26
BQ – 62
A couple of observations about the NDP in the polls:
1. NDP seems to be gaining in Atlantic Canada and Ontario in recent polls, but appears to be seriously tanking in Western Canada.
2. It is but a footnote, but they are running well ahead of their 2004 total in Quebec in all the polls, doubling their support in some surveys.
3. I think there is considerable volatility affecting the NDP, some of it likely related to contemplated strategic voting but I suspect there is more to it than that.