Wednesday, January 04, 2006

Wednesday January 4 SES Poll

In today’s SES poll the Conservatives have a clear lead. The results are:

Conservative – 36
Liberal – 33
NDP – 15
BQ – 13
Green – 4

In seats, my estimate based on SES is:

Conservative – 128
Liberal – 98
NDP – 17
BQ – 66

Intuitively, I have reacted to the SES poll during this campaign with a good deal of scepticism. I just find some of the numbers they produce very difficult to believe. For example, earlier in the campaign, I was sure they had found too many Liberals in the West. Similarly, I think they are generally underestimating support for the NDP. These are just hunches. The general trend away from the Liberals and towards the Conservatives is confirmed by other polling data but the specifics leaving me feeling doubtful about their overall reading.

For example, looking at today’s poll, my intuition is that they have a reasonable estimate for the Liberals in the West, but too much support for the Conservatives and not enough for the NDP.

I also note that on the equivalent day of the 2004 election campaign, June 9, the national SES numbers were:

Conservative – 37
Liberal – 32
NDP – 17
BQ – 10
Green – 5

My sense of this campaign (endorsed my others directly involved) is that the public has not until now been engaged, but with the last three weeks beginning earlier this week that is all changing. There is still a long way to go and a new round of leaders’ debates next week.

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