Monday, March 22, 2010

New Manitoba Poll puts PCs in First Place

A new poll in Manitoba suggests the Conservatives are now in first place: the numbers are PC - 44, NDP - 37, Liberal - 13 and Green - 3.  While doubts about the poll have already been expressed elsewhere, what TC finds interesting is that the regional breakout of the poll has the PCs ahead in rural areas 55-28 over the NDP, while in the City of Winnipeg it is the New Democrats who remain well ahead of the PCs by eight points, 44-36.

Once I crunch the numbers using the regional data, I find that, despite a lead of 7 points overall, the Tories would actually lose the election by one seat.  My projected seat numbers are:

NDP - 28
PC - 27
Liberal - 2

The Tories still have a big City of Winnipeg problem that TC thinks they must overcome to be assured of winning the next provincial election due in October, 2011.

Sunday, March 07, 2010

Does the Canadian news media have a pro-Harper, pro-Tory tilt?

Tom Flanagan thinks so.

This is from a live chat on the Globe web site on budget day, March 4. (Scroll down to the live blog area)
[Comment From GuestGuest: ]
Dear Mr. Flanagan Do you feel the Conservatives have to work extra hard to sell their proposals because of a more-than-usual hostile press?
Thursday March 4, 2010 1:23 Guest

Tom Flanagan:
Our situation in Canada is very different from the USA, where the national media are definitely liberal (except for Fox News). In Canada both the Sun chain and the CanWest papers tend to be sympathetic or at least open-minded toward the Conservatives. The Globe and Mail sometimes indulges in quixotic crusades against the government (e.g., prorogation) but is pretty fair overall. The Toronto Star is relentlessly hostile, but nobody ever said you could make friends with everyone. I would say that, compared to most countries with which I have any famiiarity, the Conservatives in Canada actually have friendly media to work with. It was different in the past, but that's the way it is now.