Strategic Counsel Seat Numbers

I have now had a chance to estimate the impact of the Strategic Counsel poll conducted between Saturday and Monday night. The firm has not yet posted the results of the poll reported in the paper this morning to its web site.

SC does not yet give us a Conservative majority although the poll reported this morning would move them closer. They are actually a little further away than I guessed yesterday. The numbers I calculate are: L - 85, C - 135, NDP - 27 and BQ - 61. The numbers are similar to a pre-debate Ipsos-Reid internet poll completed on Sunday. For this poll I have the numbers as L - 70, C - 138, NDP - 35 and BQ - 65.

I do note from the morning paper that the Conservatives still trail substantially in the Toronto area. Perhaps this is all that stands in the way of a majority.

Despite my earlier post saying a Conservative majority was possible, because Quebec will not elect many Conservatives, we may have to wait until election night to find out if they can go over the top. I also feel there remains potential for NDP gains that could prevent a majority, but they should cease and desist attacking the Liberals. At this stage of the campaign it has become pointless and possibly counter-productive.