Tuesday, January 10, 2006

Tory Majority Possible

I was about to write that the debate changed nothing, and that this campaign now had the feel of Ontario in 1995. Then I checked the Toronto Star web site and saw the headline on an Ekos poll that says the Conservatives are heading for a majority. I am inclined to agree. Sometimes campaigns just flip and the electorate collectively moves massively in one direction. This appears to be one of those times. It is therefore like 1984 or 1993.

It is important to note that the Bloc will still dominate in Quebec. That means Harper must have a 1984-scale win in English Canada just to achieve a small majority. It also means a hiccup in the last two weeks could cause them to fall short of a majority. In that sense the Star headline is clearly premature, but it does look like the folks who brought you the Walkerton disaster will soon hold the keys to the Langevin Block.

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