Monday, January 23, 2006

These are really the final numbers.

I have now incorporated the final Strategic Counsel and a final Ipsos-Reid poll (done partly online) into the averages and applied them to the seat forecaster in two ways. In the first case I use only the Quebec polling firms for the Quebec numbers (in previous elections Quebec-based polling firms have been much closer the actual result than the national firms); in the second I have used the national pollsters Quebec sub-samples.

With the Quebec polling firm numbers for Quebec
C – 134
L – 77
NDP – 41
BQ – 56

With the national polling firm numbers for Quebec
C – 129
L – 75
NDP – 41
BQ – 63

Here is what Strategic Counsel on its own gives us:
C – 126
L – 75
NDP – 45
BQ – 62

Here is what Ipsos-Reid on its own gives us:
C – 129
L – 74
NDP – 42
BQ – 62

There you have it. Now I am off to watch.

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