Sunday, May 01, 2011

Turnout will be up

The evidence suggests turnout will be up this year.  Audiences for the TV debates were up, advance voting is up and there is a party that is on a roll, the NDP, and that is likely to bring additional voters to the polls (along with opponents who fear they might form a government.)

Increased turnout is likely to be helpful for the NDP and not for the Conservatives.  Older voters, who are more likely to vote Conservative, already have a high turnout.  Increases are most likely to come from younger cohorts who are much less inclined to support the Conservatives.

Look at the difference, for example, between the Under 25s and Over 65s from Friday's Ekos poll:

Cons. Liberal  NDP  Green  Bloc  Other
Under 25 16.4 21.3 33.0 14.3 6.6 8.5
Over 65 48.2 23.0 20.6 3.4 3.5 1.2

I suspect all the youth voting turnout initiatives, the vote mobs and so on, are probably making Mr. Harper nervous.