Closing polls significantly underestimated the Conservative Vote

I have seen a great deal of speculation about what happened at the end but what you can't see are any real signs of movement at the end of the campaign.  Here are the closing campaign polls (I added a couple of polls since the previous posting):

Average of Closing Polls
	C.P.C.	Liberal	NDP	Green	Bloc	Other	Total
CANADA	37.1	20.0	30.9	6.2	4.6	1.1	100
Atlantic	32.2	28.4	34.3	3.5		1.6	100
Quebec	15.2	15.2	39.7	2.9	24.3	1.8	100
Ontario	38.1	27.4	28.5	5.0		1.1	100
Man/Sask	50.5	14.2	28.7	5.6		1.0	100
Alberta	63.6	11.1	17.5	6.5		1.3	100
B.C.	40.8	16.6	34.6	7.6		0.6	100

Here are the average vote shares based on the preliminary count of votes by Elections Canada:

2011 Preliminary Results
	C.P.C.	Liberal	NDP	Green	Bloc	Other
Canada	39.6	18.9	30.6	3.9	6.0	0.9
Atlantic	37.9	29.3	29.5	3.0		0.3
Quebec	17.1	14.1	42.6	2.1	23.3	0.9
Ontario	44.4	25.3	25.6	3.8		0.9
Man/Sask	54.8	12.7	28.9	3.2		0.4
Alberta	67.0	9.2	16.7	5.2		1.9
BC	44.7	13.6	33.0	7.8		0.8

And here is the difference:

Difference 2011 results compared to average closing polls
	C.P.C.	Liberal	NDP	Green	Bloc	Other
Canada	2.5	-1.1	-0.3	-2.3	1.4	-0.2
Atlantic	5.7	0.9	-4.7	-0.5		-1.2
Quebec	1.8	-1.1	2.9	-0.7	-1.1	-0.9
Ontario	6.3	-2.0	-2.9	-1.2		-0.2
Man/Sask	4.3	-1.4	0.2	-2.5		-0.6
Alberta	3.4	-1.9	-0.8	-1.2		0.5
BC	4.0	-3.0	-1.6	0.2		0.3

The Conservatives did much better than the polls suggested.  The difference is the difference between majority and minority. Note that NDP shares were overestimated in Ontario and Atlantic Canada and underestimated in Quebec.  TC doesn't consider differences in the 1-2 point range to be of any significance.  For the Conservatives that only held true in Quebec.