Wednesday, May 06, 2009

Nova Scotia Election: Possible NDP Win?

The Nova Scotia election called for June 9 is an interesting contest. Polls and election returns in recent years have reported a more pronounced three way split in support than in any other province. For example, in the 2008 federal election the results were: Conservatives 26.1%, Liberals 29.8%, NDP 28.9%, Green 8% and the presence of independent Bill Casey, a former Conservative MP, gave Other an overall total of 7%.

The most recent of public opinion poll by Corporate Research Associates suggests a possible NDP victory. My seat estimate based on this poll is that, if it were replicated on election day, it would produce an NDP minority government just shy of a majority:

Poll 31% 30% 36%
Seats 13 14 25

Since the early nineties the NDP has been growing in strength here, boosted in part by the breakthrough made in federal politics made by Alexa McDonough in 1997. However, this is the one region that has never had an NDP government. It has long been dominated by the Liberals both federally and provincially while the NDP has been barely present. The NDP has established a significant Atlantic presence in the past 10-15 years including being the dominant party in the Halifax area. At a time when the NDP faces significant strategic voting pressures elsewhere, Atlantic Canada may be on cusp of establishing a new regional political dynamic.

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