Sunday, May 03, 2009

Ignatieff is the Liberal leader: when is the campaign?

TC has now put together an average of all the spring 2009 polls. These consist of seven national surveys each conducted by a different firm, and released between the March 30 and May 2. It also incorporates the CROP poll out this week that has the Liberals leading in Quebec.

The outcome tells us the Liberals have gained about nine points overall since the October 2008 election with about six points of that coming from the Conservatives and three points from the NDP. The Liberals come out on top, but would today fall short of the 2004 victory of Paul Martin.

Seven National Polls - Spring 2009



C.P.C. Liberal NDP Green Bloc Total
CANADA 32 35 15 8 10 100
Atlantic 29 42 23 5 0 100
Quebec 12 33 10 5 39 100
Ontario 34 42 14 9 0 100
Man/Sask 47 27 19 5 0 100
Alta. 59 19 10 11 0 100
B.C. 35 30 23 10 0 100







Constituencies Won





C.P.C. Liberal NDP Green Bloc Total
CANADA 107 128 25 0 47 308
Atlantic 6 21 5 0 0 32
Quebec 4 23 0 0 47 75
Ontario 35 64 7 0 0 106
Man. 8 4 2 0 0 14
Sask 12 2 0 0 0 14
Alta. 27 1 0 0 0 28
B.C. 15 11 10 0 0 36
North
0 2 1 0 0 3

It is clear that none of the opposition parties have any appetite for a spring election (and there are two provincial elections just ahead, one in BC on May 12 and another likely in Nova Scotia). While the Ottawa pundits have focused on the opposition, it is clear that Liberal strategy does not foresee an electoral contest before the fall. While all three opposition parties must cooperate to bring down the government, attention has now focused on the NDP and the Bloc.

The NDP would not support the government (NDP supporters despise Harper) and, while the Bloc has in the past voted once for a Harper budget, it is by no means certain they would vote to support Harper when the first confidence vote comes in the fall.

The government itself can postpone a confidence vote until late autumn. Even if they avoid one then, Harper will have to deliver a budget by February 2010. TC's guess is that, if they get that far, the government will fall on the budget, and there will be an election with Ignatieff the winner of the electoral contest but without a majority. The combination of the Liberals and NDP is two votes short of a majority in the table above. Although there hasn't been a sustained NDP-Liberal working arrangement, coalition, call it what you will, since 1972-74, that does seem to be the most likely outcome of the next campaign.

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