Saturday, May 23, 2009

Nova Scotia Election Poll

A new Corporate Research Associates poll out this week reports the NDP continues to lead, with the Liberals and PCs evenly splitting the remainder. The poll numbers translate (in my seat model) into a small majority for the NDP:

Poll Seats
NDP 37% 27
LIB 31% 13
PC 28% 12

A new release from CRA not on their web site yet, but reported in the Chronicle Herald, tells us that 40% see the economy as the leading issue, followed by 33% who say health care. The Liberals have a plurality of 25% as the party best able to handle the economic issue while the NDP is seen by 31% as the party best able to deal with health.

The question going forward is: will the poll numbers cause some PCs to switch to the Liberals to stop the NDP or will the PCs, who are still close to the Liberals, hang on to their partisans, allowing the NDP to win a majority with less than 40% of the vote?

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