Monday, May 11, 2009

BC Election - A Conundrum

The BC election gives every appearance of being a Liberal win - all the polls have the Liberals ahead (although Angus Reid gives them a very narrow lead), and all the predictions forecast a Liberal majority save for the Election Prediction Project, which has the Liberals with a 41-37 seat lead but with 7 seats too close to call.

What started as a big Liberal lead tightened up, especially after the debate, which was clearly won by Carole James. Possibly the impact has not endured. There is some distance between all the polls and voting day. Although most predictions suggest a big Liberal victory, the anecdotal evidence suggests enough tightening to make the outcome close.

However, it would be unprecedented for all the polls and predictions by local observers to miss the direction of the election even if they are wide of the mark on the details.

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