Sunday, March 25, 2007

Quebec Election - Too Close to Call

I have averaged the final three polls from Léger, CROP and Strategic Counsel and applied my seat estimate model.

The results produce a PQ minority:

PQ - 56
Liberal - 43
ADQ - 26

However, if I simply push the margin of error to its outer limit on just the PQ and the Liberals, the results reverse, and we get a Liberal minority:

Liberal - 51
PQ - 47
ADQ - 27

I note also that the blog Democratic Space projects a Liberal minority:

Liberal - 55
PQ - 47
ADQ - 23

The differences in these projections represent very small vote share differences. The outcome is simply too close to be certain of the winner. There is added uncertainty due to the fact that the ADQ is clearly making gains in areas of Quebec outside its traditional base of support. Another imponderable is that, in past elections Liberal support on voting day exceeded its strength in the polls, but this did not happen in 2003.

The one certain conclusion is that no party will win a majority of the seats.

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