Monday, March 26, 2007

Quebec Election Day 6:45 PM Update

Update: On reflection I thought it made sense to average just the two Quebec polls: Léger and CROP and apply the model. The result was striking:

Liberal - 50

PQ - 50
ADQ - 25

A nominal tie: even closer than the earlier calculation but an outcome that would keep Charest in office. A late phone call suggested a closing tick back to the Liberals from the ADQ. However, given the three-way character of the race, in some cases this would simply deliver seats to the PQ. I also suggest reading this post by Harold Chorney.

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