Always a surprise - the ballot box bonus went to the ADQ. The outcome remains close and very uncertain.
The model isn't working very well. It is based on the 2003 election results and the unprecedented upsurge by the ADQ in non-traditional areas of support is wreaking havoc with it. I am not surprised by that.
If I input the current vote percentages I get the following outcome:
PLQ - 42
PQ - 45
ADQ - 38
The quirkiness of the first past the post system is manifesting itself.
I kept telling myself that despite the obvious success of the ADQ it couldn't win. I should have known better - Quebec is always capable of producing the big surprise.