This Léger poll out today would give the Conservatives about 160 seats. There is, however, much volatility in the polls being done these days. A new Ipsos poll also out today has much weaker results for the Conservatives, with the suggestion they are "slipping out of majority territory" - all to be taken with a grain of salt.
I think there will be intensive polling and focus group activity over the Easter break and an election call soon thereafter.
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Thursday, March 29, 2007
Wednesday, March 28, 2007
More on Quebec Polls
A correspondent emailed today to point out this Angus Reid poll, released on the weekend, which I had not noticed before election day. It was relatively accurate, being closer on the major parties than the other polls. However, its total error of 9.3% placed it just behind Léger in terms of overall accuracy. Although closer to the totals of the major parties its estimates for the minor parties were further away from the mark than Léger.
Tuesday, March 27, 2007
Quebec Post-Mortem on Polls and My Model
The closing polls on the election were generally accurate but not completely so. CROP and Léger both underestimated the ADQ vote, and this is no doubt led to the sense of surprise on election night. Their error on the ADQ in both polls was greater than the poll's margin of error. Strategic Counsel did not have any individual results outside their margin of error but were not the most accurate overall.
When I aggregated the performance of the polls by adding up the absolute error between the poll result and the final percentage of the vote for each party, I obtained the following result:
Léger - 9.1%
Strategic Counsel - 12.3%
CROP - 12.8%
So the Léger poll achieved the greatest overall accuracy.
As for my own model when I applied the actual vote percentages from the election, I found I predicted the outcome accurately in 106 of the 125 constituencies, an 85% accuracy rate. I have done better than this, but I make a calculation based on previous voting patterns. When new patterns are established, as was clearly the case here, the method is less accurate.
The net seat distribution predicted was close to the actual:
PLQ - 45
ADQ - 41
PQ - 39
The minority government in Quebec produces a never before seen dynamic in a province that remains deeply divided about its place in Canada (there are sharp differences between the Liberals and the ADQ). There will be interesting days ahead.
When I aggregated the performance of the polls by adding up the absolute error between the poll result and the final percentage of the vote for each party, I obtained the following result:
Léger - 9.1%
Strategic Counsel - 12.3%
CROP - 12.8%
So the Léger poll achieved the greatest overall accuracy.
As for my own model when I applied the actual vote percentages from the election, I found I predicted the outcome accurately in 106 of the 125 constituencies, an 85% accuracy rate. I have done better than this, but I make a calculation based on previous voting patterns. When new patterns are established, as was clearly the case here, the method is less accurate.
The net seat distribution predicted was close to the actual:
PLQ - 45
ADQ - 41
PQ - 39
The minority government in Quebec produces a never before seen dynamic in a province that remains deeply divided about its place in Canada (there are sharp differences between the Liberals and the ADQ). There will be interesting days ahead.
Monday, March 26, 2007
Quebec Election - What's Next - 10:15 PM
At this point the CBC is calling it a Liberal minority and that seems right based on what I see.
Consequences:
1. The obvious first outcome will be the end of André Boisclair as PQ leader. However, Charest may not be far behind. He trails badly in his Sherbrooke constituency.
2. I have heard some say tonight that it is a good outcome for Harper. However, one possible effect could be to give a boost to the BQ. The poor result for the PQ was unexpected, but many nationalist Quebecers may want to keep the sovereignty option alive, and see Gilles Duceppe's BQ as a means to do so in the federal election coming soon.
3. Sometimes provincial elections can have paradoxical impacts. I suspect Harper would be comfortable with a Liberal minority, but very nervous having Dumont as a putative ally - a man who supported the YES side in 1995 and has been aggressively attacking social changes to accommodate minorities, a position that might have resonance in Quebec in this election but would be unpopular in the ethnic 905 ridings in Ontario where the Conservatives hope to make gains. Harper has to keep great distance from the ADQ even if he wants their voters.
4. The ADQ has a platform they obviously can't implement, so winning would not have been helpful to them.
5. It is important not to confuse seats with votes. The ADQ is up about 13 points a lot of it a protest vote, which is by definition soft. The ADQ will still have to work hard to keep it. The PQ is just 2 points behind. A reversal of fortune in the next election can't be ruled out.
Consequences:
1. The obvious first outcome will be the end of André Boisclair as PQ leader. However, Charest may not be far behind. He trails badly in his Sherbrooke constituency.
2. I have heard some say tonight that it is a good outcome for Harper. However, one possible effect could be to give a boost to the BQ. The poor result for the PQ was unexpected, but many nationalist Quebecers may want to keep the sovereignty option alive, and see Gilles Duceppe's BQ as a means to do so in the federal election coming soon.
3. Sometimes provincial elections can have paradoxical impacts. I suspect Harper would be comfortable with a Liberal minority, but very nervous having Dumont as a putative ally - a man who supported the YES side in 1995 and has been aggressively attacking social changes to accommodate minorities, a position that might have resonance in Quebec in this election but would be unpopular in the ethnic 905 ridings in Ontario where the Conservatives hope to make gains. Harper has to keep great distance from the ADQ even if he wants their voters.
4. The ADQ has a platform they obviously can't implement, so winning would not have been helpful to them.
5. It is important not to confuse seats with votes. The ADQ is up about 13 points a lot of it a protest vote, which is by definition soft. The ADQ will still have to work hard to keep it. The PQ is just 2 points behind. A reversal of fortune in the next election can't be ruled out.
Quebec Election - 9:20 PM
Always a surprise - the ballot box bonus went to the ADQ. The outcome remains close and very uncertain.
The model isn't working very well. It is based on the 2003 election results and the unprecedented upsurge by the ADQ in non-traditional areas of support is wreaking havoc with it. I am not surprised by that.
If I input the current vote percentages I get the following outcome:
PLQ - 42
PQ - 45
ADQ - 38
The quirkiness of the first past the post system is manifesting itself.
I kept telling myself that despite the obvious success of the ADQ it couldn't win. I should have known better - Quebec is always capable of producing the big surprise.
The model isn't working very well. It is based on the 2003 election results and the unprecedented upsurge by the ADQ in non-traditional areas of support is wreaking havoc with it. I am not surprised by that.
If I input the current vote percentages I get the following outcome:
PLQ - 42
PQ - 45
ADQ - 38
The quirkiness of the first past the post system is manifesting itself.
I kept telling myself that despite the obvious success of the ADQ it couldn't win. I should have known better - Quebec is always capable of producing the big surprise.
Quebec Election Day 6:45 PM Update
Update: On reflection I thought it made sense to average just the two Quebec polls: Léger and CROP and apply the model. The result was striking:
Liberal - 50
PQ - 50
ADQ - 25
A nominal tie: even closer than the earlier calculation but an outcome that would keep Charest in office. A late phone call suggested a closing tick back to the Liberals from the ADQ. However, given the three-way character of the race, in some cases this would simply deliver seats to the PQ. I also suggest reading this post by Harold Chorney.
Liberal - 50
PQ - 50
ADQ - 25
A nominal tie: even closer than the earlier calculation but an outcome that would keep Charest in office. A late phone call suggested a closing tick back to the Liberals from the ADQ. However, given the three-way character of the race, in some cases this would simply deliver seats to the PQ. I also suggest reading this post by Harold Chorney.
Sunday, March 25, 2007
Quebec Election - Too Close to Call
I have averaged the final three polls from Léger, CROP and Strategic Counsel and applied my seat estimate model.
The results produce a PQ minority:
PQ - 56
Liberal - 43
ADQ - 26
However, if I simply push the margin of error to its outer limit on just the PQ and the Liberals, the results reverse, and we get a Liberal minority:
Liberal - 51
PQ - 47
ADQ - 27
I note also that the blog Democratic Space projects a Liberal minority:
Liberal - 55
PQ - 47
ADQ - 23
The differences in these projections represent very small vote share differences. The outcome is simply too close to be certain of the winner. There is added uncertainty due to the fact that the ADQ is clearly making gains in areas of Quebec outside its traditional base of support. Another imponderable is that, in past elections Liberal support on voting day exceeded its strength in the polls, but this did not happen in 2003.
The one certain conclusion is that no party will win a majority of the seats.
The results produce a PQ minority:
PQ - 56
Liberal - 43
ADQ - 26
However, if I simply push the margin of error to its outer limit on just the PQ and the Liberals, the results reverse, and we get a Liberal minority:
Liberal - 51
PQ - 47
ADQ - 27
I note also that the blog Democratic Space projects a Liberal minority:
Liberal - 55
PQ - 47
ADQ - 23
The differences in these projections represent very small vote share differences. The outcome is simply too close to be certain of the winner. There is added uncertainty due to the fact that the ADQ is clearly making gains in areas of Quebec outside its traditional base of support. Another imponderable is that, in past elections Liberal support on voting day exceeded its strength in the polls, but this did not happen in 2003.
The one certain conclusion is that no party will win a majority of the seats.
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