The BC election gives every appearance of being a Liberal win - all the polls have the Liberals ahead (although Angus Reid gives them a very narrow lead), and all the predictions forecast a Liberal majority save for the Election Prediction Project, which has the Liberals with a 41-37 seat lead but with 7 seats too close to call.
What started as a big Liberal lead tightened up, especially after the debate, which was clearly won by Carole James. Possibly the impact has not endured. There is some distance between all the polls and voting day. Although most predictions suggest a big Liberal victory, the anecdotal evidence suggests enough tightening to make the outcome close.
However, it would be unprecedented for all the polls and predictions by local observers to miss the direction of the election even if they are wide of the mark on the details.
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Monday, May 11, 2009
Wednesday, May 06, 2009
Nova Scotia Election: Possible NDP Win?
The Nova Scotia election called for June 9 is an interesting contest. Polls and election returns in recent years have reported a more pronounced three way split in support than in any other province. For example, in the 2008 federal election the results were: Conservatives 26.1%, Liberals 29.8%, NDP 28.9%, Green 8% and the presence of independent Bill Casey, a former Conservative MP, gave Other an overall total of 7%.
The most recent of public opinion poll by Corporate Research Associates suggests a possible NDP victory. My seat estimate based on this poll is that, if it were replicated on election day, it would produce an NDP minority government just shy of a majority:
Since the early nineties the NDP has been growing in strength here, boosted in part by the breakthrough made in federal politics made by Alexa McDonough in 1997. However, this is the one region that has never had an NDP government. It has long been dominated by the Liberals both federally and provincially while the NDP has been barely present. The NDP has established a significant Atlantic presence in the past 10-15 years including being the dominant party in the Halifax area. At a time when the NDP faces significant strategic voting pressures elsewhere, Atlantic Canada may be on cusp of establishing a new regional political dynamic.
The most recent of public opinion poll by Corporate Research Associates suggests a possible NDP victory. My seat estimate based on this poll is that, if it were replicated on election day, it would produce an NDP minority government just shy of a majority:
| LIB | PC | NDP | |
| Poll | 31% | 30% | 36% |
| Seats | 13 | 14 | 25 |
Since the early nineties the NDP has been growing in strength here, boosted in part by the breakthrough made in federal politics made by Alexa McDonough in 1997. However, this is the one region that has never had an NDP government. It has long been dominated by the Liberals both federally and provincially while the NDP has been barely present. The NDP has established a significant Atlantic presence in the past 10-15 years including being the dominant party in the Halifax area. At a time when the NDP faces significant strategic voting pressures elsewhere, Atlantic Canada may be on cusp of establishing a new regional political dynamic.
Sunday, May 03, 2009
Ignatieff is the Liberal leader: when is the campaign?
TC has now put together an average of all the spring 2009 polls. These consist of seven national surveys each conducted by a different firm, and released between the March 30 and May 2. It also incorporates the CROP poll out this week that has the Liberals leading in Quebec.
The outcome tells us the Liberals have gained about nine points overall since the October 2008 election with about six points of that coming from the Conservatives and three points from the NDP. The Liberals come out on top, but would today fall short of the 2004 victory of Paul Martin.
It is clear that none of the opposition parties have any appetite for a spring election (and there are two provincial elections just ahead, one in BC on May 12 and another likely in Nova Scotia). While the Ottawa pundits have focused on the opposition, it is clear that Liberal strategy does not foresee an electoral contest before the fall. While all three opposition parties must cooperate to bring down the government, attention has now focused on the NDP and the Bloc.
The NDP would not support the government (NDP supporters despise Harper) and, while the Bloc has in the past voted once for a Harper budget, it is by no means certain they would vote to support Harper when the first confidence vote comes in the fall.
The government itself can postpone a confidence vote until late autumn. Even if they avoid one then, Harper will have to deliver a budget by February 2010. TC's guess is that, if they get that far, the government will fall on the budget, and there will be an election with Ignatieff the winner of the electoral contest but without a majority. The combination of the Liberals and NDP is two votes short of a majority in the table above. Although there hasn't been a sustained NDP-Liberal working arrangement, coalition, call it what you will, since 1972-74, that does seem to be the most likely outcome of the next campaign.
The outcome tells us the Liberals have gained about nine points overall since the October 2008 election with about six points of that coming from the Conservatives and three points from the NDP. The Liberals come out on top, but would today fall short of the 2004 victory of Paul Martin.
| Seven National Polls - Spring 2009 | ||||||
| C.P.C. | Liberal | NDP | Green | Bloc | Total | |
| CANADA | 32 | 35 | 15 | 8 | 10 | 100 |
| Atlantic | 29 | 42 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 100 |
| Quebec | 12 | 33 | 10 | 5 | 39 | 100 |
| Ontario | 34 | 42 | 14 | 9 | 0 | 100 |
| Man/Sask | 47 | 27 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 100 |
| Alta. | 59 | 19 | 10 | 11 | 0 | 100 |
| B.C. | 35 | 30 | 23 | 10 | 0 | 100 |
| Constituencies Won | ||||||
| C.P.C. | Liberal | NDP | Green | Bloc | Total | |
| CANADA | 107 | 128 | 25 | 0 | 47 | 308 |
| Atlantic | 6 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 32 |
| Quebec | 4 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 47 | 75 |
| Ontario | 35 | 64 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 106 |
| Man. | 8 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
| Sask | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
| Alta. | 27 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28 |
| B.C. | 15 | 11 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 36 |
| North | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
It is clear that none of the opposition parties have any appetite for a spring election (and there are two provincial elections just ahead, one in BC on May 12 and another likely in Nova Scotia). While the Ottawa pundits have focused on the opposition, it is clear that Liberal strategy does not foresee an electoral contest before the fall. While all three opposition parties must cooperate to bring down the government, attention has now focused on the NDP and the Bloc.
The NDP would not support the government (NDP supporters despise Harper) and, while the Bloc has in the past voted once for a Harper budget, it is by no means certain they would vote to support Harper when the first confidence vote comes in the fall.
The government itself can postpone a confidence vote until late autumn. Even if they avoid one then, Harper will have to deliver a budget by February 2010. TC's guess is that, if they get that far, the government will fall on the budget, and there will be an election with Ignatieff the winner of the electoral contest but without a majority. The combination of the Liberals and NDP is two votes short of a majority in the table above. Although there hasn't been a sustained NDP-Liberal working arrangement, coalition, call it what you will, since 1972-74, that does seem to be the most likely outcome of the next campaign.
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Six national polls and the slow death of the Harper Conservatives
The stock market crashed in September. After a lag of six months the ensuing downturn is now seriously hurting the governing Conservatives.
Each of six national pollsters reported in their most recent survey a downturn for the Conservatives since their previous poll. Most had reported signs of weakening previously:
Economic downturns destroy national Canadian incumbent governments quite efficiently albeit not instantly; the death can be slow and painful.
Each of six national pollsters reported in their most recent survey a downturn for the Conservatives since their previous poll. Most had reported signs of weakening previously:
- Harris-Decima - April 21 here and March 13 here.
- Strategic Counsel - on page 5 here, polls from March 5-8 and April 2-5
- Ipsos Reid - March 10 here, and February 7 here (both polls showed the Conservatives weakening)
- Nanos Research - March 21 here, and Feb. 12 here
- Angus Reid - Results from April 21-22 and March 10-11 can be found on page 4 here.
- Ekos - April 16 here, and Jan. 21 here.
Economic downturns destroy national Canadian incumbent governments quite efficiently albeit not instantly; the death can be slow and painful.
Sunday, April 19, 2009
B.C. Election - the NDP and the carbon tax
The first poll in the B.C. Election campaign came from the Mustel group and it gives the Liberals a 17 point lead - 52% for the Liberals to 35% for the NDP and 12% for the Greens. The result naturally would be a large Liberal majority, but the campaign is still in its early stages and much can change. The poll also asks a series of questions about which party would best handle various policy issues. The NDP's difficulties can be put into perspective by looking at the numbers.
The poll doesn't specifically measure the reputation of the parties but they are clear to see from the results. The Liberals outpoll the NDP on the economy 63-23, the key issue with a recession just getting underway. A year from now the Liberal advantage would evaporate - in the likely event that the downturn will continue. The Liberals also outpoint the NDP on crime 49-25, an issue of some albeit secondary importance given the recent spate of high profile murders on the lower mainland.
The NDP maintains its traditional advantage in health and education but take a look at the issue of the environment - the advantage here lies with the Greens at 51%; the NDP trails far behind 21%, while the Liberals, despite Gordon Campbell's initiatives on climate change, poll just 16%.
The environment was traditionally an asset for the NDP, and one can see a small residue of that in the numbers. However, in opposing Campbell's carbon tax (and Dion's last fall for that matter), and thereby drawing fire from the likes of David Suzuki, the NDP may be risking long term possibly catastrophic damage to its reputation. The short term political calculus is probably right: more votes among lower income voters upset at a consumption tax but key to some swing ridings compared to the loss of more green leaning voters in either safe NDP or Liberal constituencies. It likely won't make much difference to the outcome of this election.
But reputations are made with every small step a party takes - think of Stanley Knowles rising in the House again and again to press for better pensions. It is wrong for the NDP to assume the fallout on this one can be safely ignored.
There is a good analysis of the issues involved by Economist Marc Lee in a posting to the Relentlessly Progressive Economics blog. As he notes "Rightly or wrongly, the carbon tax has become a litmus test for seriousness on climate change to the great detriment of the NDP. " Lee also goes on to point out that the NDP's "budget platform essentially endorses the rest of the BC government’s climate action plan and does make some improvements...". However, there is a fundamental difference between the NDP opposing the carbon tax when first proposed, and now saying they would abandon it. Along with the federal NDP (and various provincial governments) they endorse cap-and-trade as an alternative. In fact, one can easily do both - carbon taxes can be implemented much faster and we remain years away from any working cap-and-trade system because of the complex negotiations involved. For average consumers the impact would be the same - the price of goods and services will rise to reflect the increased cost of carbon. But these downstream price effects are less obvious to the electorate. That is what makes cap-and-trade currently popular with parties that want to be seen as environmentally friendly without taking political risks.
The short to medium term preoccupation with recession will inevitably give way to growing worry about global warming, simply because the problem isn't going away (2008 was tied for the eighth warmest year on record). Ratcheting back even weak initiatives such as Campbell's carbon tax is simply the wrong way to go. As Lee states "one major problem with the NDP’s proposal to scrap the tax is that the tax could be used to finance those good things ... that need a public boost. Instead, the NDP would have to borrow the money for those investments, and with the BC budget in a sea of red ink, the bias will be towards doing too little." Better to keep the tax and use it to fund alternate energy and conservation programs, even if the price effects on consumption from a small tax are weak. One way or the other the BC NDP needs to something to demonstrate its bona fides on the issue.
Eventually climate change will come to dominate all politics, and the individual choices made by parties over time will contribute one way or another to their reputation on this issue - even the specific short run choices that will be soon forgotten. The 2009 BC election will eventually fade from our consciousness, but the debate over how to deal with too much carbon in the atmosphere won't.
The poll doesn't specifically measure the reputation of the parties but they are clear to see from the results. The Liberals outpoll the NDP on the economy 63-23, the key issue with a recession just getting underway. A year from now the Liberal advantage would evaporate - in the likely event that the downturn will continue. The Liberals also outpoint the NDP on crime 49-25, an issue of some albeit secondary importance given the recent spate of high profile murders on the lower mainland.
The NDP maintains its traditional advantage in health and education but take a look at the issue of the environment - the advantage here lies with the Greens at 51%; the NDP trails far behind 21%, while the Liberals, despite Gordon Campbell's initiatives on climate change, poll just 16%.
The environment was traditionally an asset for the NDP, and one can see a small residue of that in the numbers. However, in opposing Campbell's carbon tax (and Dion's last fall for that matter), and thereby drawing fire from the likes of David Suzuki, the NDP may be risking long term possibly catastrophic damage to its reputation. The short term political calculus is probably right: more votes among lower income voters upset at a consumption tax but key to some swing ridings compared to the loss of more green leaning voters in either safe NDP or Liberal constituencies. It likely won't make much difference to the outcome of this election.
But reputations are made with every small step a party takes - think of Stanley Knowles rising in the House again and again to press for better pensions. It is wrong for the NDP to assume the fallout on this one can be safely ignored.
There is a good analysis of the issues involved by Economist Marc Lee in a posting to the Relentlessly Progressive Economics blog. As he notes "Rightly or wrongly, the carbon tax has become a litmus test for seriousness on climate change to the great detriment of the NDP. " Lee also goes on to point out that the NDP's "budget platform essentially endorses the rest of the BC government’s climate action plan and does make some improvements...". However, there is a fundamental difference between the NDP opposing the carbon tax when first proposed, and now saying they would abandon it. Along with the federal NDP (and various provincial governments) they endorse cap-and-trade as an alternative. In fact, one can easily do both - carbon taxes can be implemented much faster and we remain years away from any working cap-and-trade system because of the complex negotiations involved. For average consumers the impact would be the same - the price of goods and services will rise to reflect the increased cost of carbon. But these downstream price effects are less obvious to the electorate. That is what makes cap-and-trade currently popular with parties that want to be seen as environmentally friendly without taking political risks.
The short to medium term preoccupation with recession will inevitably give way to growing worry about global warming, simply because the problem isn't going away (2008 was tied for the eighth warmest year on record). Ratcheting back even weak initiatives such as Campbell's carbon tax is simply the wrong way to go. As Lee states "one major problem with the NDP’s proposal to scrap the tax is that the tax could be used to finance those good things ... that need a public boost. Instead, the NDP would have to borrow the money for those investments, and with the BC budget in a sea of red ink, the bias will be towards doing too little." Better to keep the tax and use it to fund alternate energy and conservation programs, even if the price effects on consumption from a small tax are weak. One way or the other the BC NDP needs to something to demonstrate its bona fides on the issue.
Eventually climate change will come to dominate all politics, and the individual choices made by parties over time will contribute one way or another to their reputation on this issue - even the specific short run choices that will be soon forgotten. The 2009 BC election will eventually fade from our consciousness, but the debate over how to deal with too much carbon in the atmosphere won't.
Thursday, April 16, 2009
New Ekos Poll
Released tonight. It confirms the trend reflected in the polls discussed in the previous post.
Sunday, April 19 Update:
Full details are here and Ekos seat projection here.
Sunday, April 19 Update:
Full details are here and Ekos seat projection here.
Monday, April 13, 2009
Two recent polls - Crossing the Line
Recent polls from Strategic Counsel and Leger appear to represent the crossing of a line for the Harper government. Compared to the 2008 election the two polls report significant opinion movement in Quebec and Ontario.
The Quebec shift is not new - it dates to the time of the attempt to form a coalition in late November/early December 2008 and Harper's angry response, which exploited English Canadian resentment of Quebec separatism to successfully rally opinion outside Quebec against the coalition idea. The coalition period has disappeared from the polls except for lingering resentment directed at Harper in Quebec. His problem there stems from the fact that his rhetoric came to be interpreted as expressing antagonism to Quebec nationalism. Nationalism, whether pro-independence or not, is seen as legitimate in Quebec. Harper therefore came to be seen by many as anti-Quebec. This is not likely to go away.
The Ontario shift is more likely a product of the deepening recession, which is also having a growing impact on Quebec.
Here are the two polls' Quebec/Ontario numbers:
The seat outcome for both polls is quite similar:
TC expects the government's position to deteriorate further. Note that this falls just short of a Liberal/NDP majority after the next election. Nonetheless, that appears to be where we are headed.
The Quebec shift is not new - it dates to the time of the attempt to form a coalition in late November/early December 2008 and Harper's angry response, which exploited English Canadian resentment of Quebec separatism to successfully rally opinion outside Quebec against the coalition idea. The coalition period has disappeared from the polls except for lingering resentment directed at Harper in Quebec. His problem there stems from the fact that his rhetoric came to be interpreted as expressing antagonism to Quebec nationalism. Nationalism, whether pro-independence or not, is seen as legitimate in Quebec. Harper therefore came to be seen by many as anti-Quebec. This is not likely to go away.
The Ontario shift is more likely a product of the deepening recession, which is also having a growing impact on Quebec.
Here are the two polls' Quebec/Ontario numbers:
| Leger | ||||||
| C.P.C. | Liberal | NDP | Green | Bloc | Other | |
| Quebec | 12.0 | 33.0 | 10.0 | 3.0 | 42.0 | 1.0 |
| Ontario | 35.0 | 45.0 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Strategic Counsel | ||||||
| C.P.C. | Liberal | NDP | Green | Bloc | Other | |
| Quebec | 15.0 | 29.0 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 41.0 | 1.0 |
| Ontario | 32.0 | 45.0 | 15.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
The seat outcome for both polls is quite similar:
| C.P.C. | Liberal | NDP | Bloc | Other | Total | |
| Leger | 105 | 125 | 25 | 52 | 1 | 308 |
| Strategic Counsel | 107 | 125 | 26 | 49 | 1 | 308 |
TC expects the government's position to deteriorate further. Note that this falls just short of a Liberal/NDP majority after the next election. Nonetheless, that appears to be where we are headed.
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