The Friday moring headline in the Free Press said "NDP clinging to lead", but it is clearly enough to ensure victory in next Tuesday's provincial election for Mr. Selinger's party. The Probe numbers are at roughly the midpoint of the other two polls, an average of the three essentially replicates Probe's numbers.
TC does not have an estimate model based on the current boundaries, but if the Probe numbers are accurate the one notable change we can see now would be the loss to the Liberals of both their seats. The NDP would win a majority. How large is difficult to determine. TC's estimate is that the absolute lowest number of NDP seats would be 30 (the result that would occur if the PCs win every close race) but it will probably be greater than that.
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