How close is it in Ontario?

About as close as it could be. Here is the average of the four polls released in the last couple of days:

Liberal	PC	NDP	Green
34.4	34.6	26.4	4.1

The outcome seems likely to depend on asymmetric shifts within the province. In some regions such as the Greater Toronto Area Liberal losses appear to be smaller than in other areas. Overall there will be many close races. A small movement over the next couple of days could shift the election from one party to another.  The average above would give us a Liberal minority based on the 2007 results.