The National Post has a new Ipsos-Reid poll today, advertised as the first to show the McGuinty government behind the Conservatives. However, this latter point is a bit of pollster ego. The first Ipsos poll to show the Liberals behind it may be. However, an Environics poll released last October actually put the PCs 5 points ahead at that time, so the evidence of political trouble for the Liberals has been around for some time now.
The Ipsos-Reid poll has the PCs at 36, the Liberals at 35 with the NDP at 18 and the Greens at 11. TC calculates that this would produce a Liberal minority government. The seat distribution would be:
Liberals - 51
PCs - 38
NDP - 18.
She isn't all that well known now but it might be worthwhile for people in Ontario to find out more about Andrea Horvath. In a little more than a year she may be playing an important role in their lives.