Sunday, August 15, 2010

Harper's Decline

As recently as the end of May some, but not all, polling numbers suggested an election could produce a result leaving the governing Conservatives with about as many seats as they won last time.  That was before the G20 fake lake, the census fiasco, and Stockwell Day's imaginary crime wave, all compounded now by the Tamil ship, which one might easily guess has the party's base, the Reform type Conservative supporters, fuming. The decline has taken a substantial toll on Tory popularity.

Three polls are aggregated below and turned into seats. Here is the House of Commons an average of the Ekos, Harris-Decima and Vision Critical (Reid) polls produce:

C.P.C. Liberal NDP Green Bloc Other Total
Poll 33.0 28.4 16.6 10.8 9.5 1.7 100
Seats 123 96 37 0 51 1 308

The Harper government has been considerably weakened by events this summer.