Tuesday, February 13, 2007

New Decima Poll similar to SES

The Conservatives commenced their French language Dion swiftboating ads today, making it that much more apparent that this is a pre-election period. A Decima poll out today has findings close to last week's SES survey, reporting a statistical tie between the Conservatives and the Liberals. TC also heard today of a private poll from two weeks ago also reporting a tie.

Next week brings a Quebec election call with a new poll today giving the Quebec Liberals a five point lead - 36 to 31 over the PQ with the ADQ at 21. These numbers, however, would give us a PQ minority according to my forecaster. The PLQ is too weak at the moment among francophones to win. The one thing that might derail a federal election would be a loss by Charest in Quebec. It would give Harper pause, but would it then give all the opposition parties an incentive to go after him, seizing an advantage based on the wounds Harper would suffer as a consequence of losing a key ally? At the moment an imponderable.

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