Sunday, February 11, 2007

Léger and SES Polls

There were two national polls out this week from Léger Marketing and SES. When I applied my forecaster to the numbers I found two very different outcomes - the Liberals were ahead based on SES while the Conservatives fell just short of a majority in Léger (but not based on gains in Quebec).

However, if one looks closely at the results and the margins of error, the greatest uncertainty comes from Atlantic Canada where the two polls differ quite widely because their samples are tiny and the margin of error large for both. Elsewhere, although the differences are narrow, the seat outcomes differ significantly because, for example, in Ontario in SES had the Liberals lead the Conservatives while the reverse is true in Léger, but overall the numbers are quite similar in the other regions.

I averaged the two polls and this is what I get:

Conservatives - 128
Liberals - 116
NDP - 21
BQ - 42
Ind. - 1

The Léger numbers are intriguing because if the government believes them or thinks this is what an election result could look like, they would clearly be tempted to get into an early campaign.

No comments: