Saturday, March 24, 2012

Convention Math

The first ballot of the NDP convention is complete.  Mulcair leads with 30.3% followed by Brian Topp at 21.4%.

Assuming the order of finish after the first ballot remains the same, Brian Topp would need 60 per cent of second choices over the next few ballots to overhaul Thomas Mulcair.  That is too steep a hill to climb.

While it is hypothetically possible that the number voting online will increase on the second ballot, TC thinks it is highly unlikely to increase much if at all.  I haven't been able to find the number from 2003 but my memory tells me there was similar surprise at the relatively low number voting online or by telephone.