No Tory Majority Come Monday

The overall shape of the final outcome is now clear.  The election next Monday will not produce a Conservative majority.  The Conservatives will finish first, followed by the NDP, with the Liberals third and the Bloc a distant fourth.

Here is a chart showing shifts in support from 2008, compared to polls released since Monday, April 25.

Polls - Last week of April
Change since 2008
	C.P.C.	Liberal	NDP	Green	Bloc	Other
Canada	-2.3	-3.3	10.2	-0.6	-4.2	0.1
Atlantic	2.7	-4.4	4.7	-1.4	0.0	-1.7
Quebec	-6.8	-7.3	25.9	0.0	-12.8	1.0
Ontario	0.4	-4.3	5.3	-1.6	0.0	0.3
Man/Sask	-3.3	1.1	2.6	-0.7	0.0	0.3
Alberta	-5.2	2.5	4.9	-0.7	0.0	-1.4
BC	-5.4	2.4	2.4	0.1	0.0	0.6

Apart from a tiny gain in Ontario and a small increase in Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives are losing ground, not making gains. The story of the campaign is the spectacular success of Jack Layton's NDP, with the possibility that their final total will top 100 seats. A perfect symbol is all the commercials the Conservatives are running attacking Michael Ignatieff who no longer poses a threat.

Come Monday night, there will be disappointment for Stephen Harper, celebrations from coast to coast for the NDP, and devastation for the Liberals and Bloc.