Saturday, March 26, 2011

Contradictory Polls

I don't recall an election where the early polling sent such contradictory messages.  The media mindset is on a possible Tory majority and the coalition "issue", but the polls offer clashing signals about just what is going on.

Here are average seat projections from two different sets of polls.

C.P.C. Liberal NDP Green Bloc Other Total
Nanos/Ekos/Decima 138 83 34 0 52 1 308
Ipsos/Leger/Reid 158 66 29 0 54 1 308

The difference reflects varying Liberal levels of support.  Note also that although a Conservative majority is anticipated by the most recent Ipsos/Leger/Reid surveys, it is just barely over the minimum 154 mark.  This continues to lead TC to believe that a Conservative majority remains unlikely.

As a measure of how difficult it will be look at the vote shares from 2008 from outside Quebec.

C.P.C. Liberal NDP Green Bloc Other Total
Canada excluding Quebec 43.3 27.1 20.3 7.9 0.0 1.3 100.0

We tend to forget the Conservatives did extraordinarily well in 2008.  Not only do they have to repeat that success, but they also have to exceed it.