Here are average seat projections from two different sets of polls.
The difference reflects varying Liberal levels of support. Note also that although a Conservative majority is anticipated by the most recent Ipsos/Leger/Reid surveys, it is just barely over the minimum 154 mark. This continues to lead TC to believe that a Conservative majority remains unlikely.
As a measure of how difficult it will be look at the vote shares from 2008 from outside Quebec.
|Canada excluding Quebec||43.3||27.1||20.3||7.9||0.0||1.3||100.0|
We tend to forget the Conservatives did extraordinarily well in 2008. Not only do they have to repeat that success, but they also have to exceed it.