Wednesday, May 05, 2010

UK Election - What should we expect?

It is going to be close, which is remarkable.  Given how much the UK's economy was damaged by the financial crisis it is amazing to me that Brown and company are even this close.  I built a model to forecast the British election.

With the final poll of polls entered from the Guardian this is the result we get:

Cons. Labour Lib-Dem Others
Poll  36.0  28.6 26.2 9.2
Seats 282 249 81 36

The seat total is 648 and others include the Northern Irish parties, Welsh and Scottish nationalists and a few others including one Green.

The conclusion: no majority and while the Conservatives do seem headed for first place Labour is still not completely out of it.

British vote counting is notoriously slow.  It will be a long night.