A new poll in Manitoba suggests the Conservatives are now in first place: the numbers are PC - 44, NDP - 37, Liberal - 13 and Green - 3. While doubts about the poll have already been expressed elsewhere, what TC finds interesting is that the regional breakout of the poll has the PCs ahead in rural areas 55-28 over the NDP, while in the City of Winnipeg it is the New Democrats who remain well ahead of the PCs by eight points, 44-36.
Once I crunch the numbers using the regional data, I find that, despite a lead of 7 points overall, the Tories would actually lose the election by one seat. My projected seat numbers are:
NDP - 28
PC - 27
Liberal - 2
The Tories still have a big City of Winnipeg problem that TC thinks they must overcome to be assured of winning the next provincial election due in October, 2011.