While I can't estimate an exact number, there is no doubt the Strategic Counsel Poll we saw in the Globe would produce a small Conservative majority.
However, on the weekend the PM did two things that appear to rule out an early trip to the polls. He announced a royal visit and called early by-elections on consecutive days. What this says I think is that Conservative support (and likewise Liberal weakness) is premised on deep antipathy by Canadians to the idea of an early election. If Harper tried to force one, it would be obvious, and a fair portion of their support would evaporate. Just a slight loss would mean no majority, and leave the Conservatives where they are now.
This paradox is very much to the current benefit of the Liberals who are not ready for a campaign. Ignatieff nonetheless seems oblivious to his party's predicament. If Michael Ignatieff ever manages to find a way to 24 Sussex Drive he will owe a debt of gratitude to Jack Layton that he did not have to enter an election campaign in the fall of 2009.