Michael Ignatieff's Charmed Life

One might think from perusing our national press that it had been a bad week for Michael Ignatieff. Not so at all. It is true that the full extent of Mr. Ignatieff's lack of skills for Canadian federal politics was on full display (something previously noted by TC). However, the worst fate that could have befallen the Liberal leader would have been actual success in his failed effort to bring down the government.

TC has averaged the three polls out this week from Léger, Ekos and Angus Reid (the latter reported exceptionally weak results for the Liberals) and applied them to my seat model. Here are the results:

Polls	Cons.	Libs.	NDP	Green	Bloc	Other	Total
CANADA	36	29	16	8	10	1	100
Atlantic	28	38	25	9	0	1	100
Quebec	16	28	12	5	38	1	100
Ontario	41	33	15	9	0	1	100
Man/Sask	50	21	22	6	0	1	100
Alta.	64	16	10	9	0	1	100
B.C.	39	25	24	11	0	0	100
Constituencies	Cons.	Libs.	NDP	Green	Bloc	Other	Total
Atlantic	7	21	4	0	0	0	32
Quebec	7	21	0	0	46	1	75
Ontario	55	36	15	0	0	0	106
Man.	9	1	4	0	0	0	14
Sask	13	1	0	0	0	0	14
Alta.	28	0	0	0	0	0	28
B.C.	20	8	8	0	0	0	36
North	0	2	1	0	0	0	3
Total	139	90	32	0	46	1	308

Note in particular that Liberal weakness translates not just into Conservative strength but also NDP victories in most of the party's 2008 seats, even with a smaller overall NDP popular support. So Mr. Layton's that was then, this is now act in supporting the government after many votes of non-confidence (which was overshadowed this week by the Liberals' troubles) is not costing the NDP. Note also that, for all that has been going well recently for Mr. Harper, he is nowhere near a majority.

All of the above is hypothetical and Mr. Ignatieff does not actually have to face the electorate despite all his mistakes and difficulties. He actually escaped this week with no election. As I said at the outset: a charmed life. Circumstances could yet make him prime minister, despite his own best efforts to derail his campaign to get to 24 Sussex Drive.