No Drama Obama

TC continues to find Barack Obama an extraordinary political leader - a talent without parallel in my lifetime.

Here is a testimonial from the Wall Street whiz who presided over the auto bailout:

New to business meetings with Presidents, I found Obama's style consistent with his 'No drama Obama' image and on a par with the best CEOs I had spent time with. He was cordial without being effusive and decisive when his advisers were divided....

Read the rest of it here.

I also read the full account of the bailouts here in Fortune. Here are some highlights:

Among the surprises along the way: We were shocked, even beyond our low expectations, by the poor state of both GM and Chrysler. Looking just at the condition of GM's finances and Chrysler's new-car pipeline, the case for a bailout was weak.

But on the other hand, as we surveyed the interconnected web of finance companies, suppliers, and related businesses, the potential impact of the likely alternative -- liquidation -- stunned us. We imagined that the collapse of the automakers could devastate the Midwest beyond imagination. We were determined not to fail. But as we started down the road, we saw mainly obstacles....

And this description of GM management:

Everyone knew Detroit's reputation for insular, slow-moving cultures. Even by that low standard, I was shocked by the stunningly poor management that we found, particularly at GM, where we encountered, among other things, perhaps the weakest finance operation any of us had ever seen in a major company.

For example, under the previous administration's loan agreements, Treasury was to approve every GM transaction of more than $100 million that was outside of the normal course. From my first day at Treasury, PowerPoint decks would arrive from GM (we quickly concluded that no decision seemed to be made at GM without one) requesting approvals. We were appalled by the absence of sound analysis provided to justify these expenditures.

The cultural deficiencies were equally stunning. At GM's Renaissance Center headquarters, the top brass were sequestered on the uppermost floor, behind locked and guarded glass doors. Executives housed on that floor had elevator cards that allowed them to descend to their private garage without stopping at any of the intervening floors (no mixing with the drones).

The majority conundrum

While the focus of current discussion is about a possible Conservative majority, the reality is that our regionally and ideologically fragmented system makes a majority problematic even when a party seems well positioned to do so. Many believe Harper’s Conservatives presently are in that position now. However, one needs majority type polls at the end of an election campaign not in hypothetical horse races in the media. Some recent polls point to just such a hypothetical majority (Ekos, Strategic Counsel and Angus Reid) but others (Decima, Ipsos) don’t. This is largely because of differences in the Ontario sub-samples, which suggests some instability in Ontario opinion, and that its ultimate direction remains unclear.

As TC has touched on before, winning a majority is extremely difficult in the current Canadian party system. One could make the case, for example, that the Conservatives were headed for a majority in 2008, but fumbled the opportunity by getting the politics of culture wrong in Quebec. A misstep like that could occur in any region. We forget that the Conservatives also lost seats in Newfoundland as a consequence of their feud with Danny Williams. The point is that it is enormously difficult to have everything work right at once in enough regions to secure 155 ridings.

Fundamentally, the problem is that the Bloc Québecois control a group of francophone ridings in Quebec usually numbering around 50. They dipped as low as 38 in 2000 when they were hurt by the unpopularity at the time of the PQ Bouchard regime in Quebec City. They won 49 seats in 2008.

That means that to win the 155 seats needed for a majority, another party must win 59.8% of the remaining seats. If we look at history in the pre-Bloc era (but after 1957 when the number of seats won by third parties began to grow significantly), we see only the Diefenbaker landslide majority of 1958 (78.5% of the seats) and a similar win by Mulroney in 1984 (74.8% of the seats) exceed that benchmark. By this standard, the Trudeau majority of 1968 (58.3% of the seats) almost but not quite qualifies, while his majorities in 1974 (53.4% of the seats) and 1980 (53.4% of the seats) do not.

It is highly unlikely there will be an election before the spring of 2010 – an eternity in politics. The outcome is more likely than not to be another minority. When we see the Bloc vote collapse the conditions for majority governments in Canada can emerge once again. The recent Ignatieff meltdown does suggest another scenario for a majority, but there are many ways for the Conservatives to go astray between now and voting day when it eventually comes.

Strategic Counsel Poll in Globe - A Majority?

While I can't estimate an exact number, there is no doubt the Strategic Counsel Poll we saw in the Globe would produce a small Conservative majority.

However, on the weekend the PM did two things that appear to rule out an early trip to the polls. He announced a royal visit and called early by-elections on consecutive days. What this says I think is that Conservative support (and likewise Liberal weakness) is premised on deep antipathy by Canadians to the idea of an early election. If Harper tried to force one, it would be obvious, and a fair portion of their support would evaporate. Just a slight loss would mean no majority, and leave the Conservatives where they are now.

This paradox is very much to the current benefit of the Liberals who are not ready for a campaign. Ignatieff nonetheless seems oblivious to his party's predicament. If Michael Ignatieff ever manages to find a way to 24 Sussex Drive he will owe a debt of gratitude to Jack Layton that he did not have to enter an election campaign in the fall of 2009.

Michael Ignatieff's Charmed Life

One might think from perusing our national press that it had been a bad week for Michael Ignatieff. Not so at all. It is true that the full extent of Mr. Ignatieff's lack of skills for Canadian federal politics was on full display (something previously noted by TC). However, the worst fate that could have befallen the Liberal leader would have been actual success in his failed effort to bring down the government.

TC has averaged the three polls out this week from Léger, Ekos and Angus Reid (the latter reported exceptionally weak results for the Liberals) and applied them to my seat model. Here are the results:

Polls	Cons.	Libs.	NDP	Green	Bloc	Other	Total
CANADA	36	29	16	8	10	1	100
Atlantic	28	38	25	9	0	1	100
Quebec	16	28	12	5	38	1	100
Ontario	41	33	15	9	0	1	100
Man/Sask	50	21	22	6	0	1	100
Alta.	64	16	10	9	0	1	100
B.C.	39	25	24	11	0	0	100
Constituencies	Cons.	Libs.	NDP	Green	Bloc	Other	Total
Atlantic	7	21	4	0	0	0	32
Quebec	7	21	0	0	46	1	75
Ontario	55	36	15	0	0	0	106
Man.	9	1	4	0	0	0	14
Sask	13	1	0	0	0	0	14
Alta.	28	0	0	0	0	0	28
B.C.	20	8	8	0	0	0	36
North	0	2	1	0	0	0	3
Total	139	90	32	0	46	1	308

Note in particular that Liberal weakness translates not just into Conservative strength but also NDP victories in most of the party's 2008 seats, even with a smaller overall NDP popular support. So Mr. Layton's that was then, this is now act in supporting the government after many votes of non-confidence (which was overshadowed this week by the Liberals' troubles) is not costing the NDP. Note also that, for all that has been going well recently for Mr. Harper, he is nowhere near a majority.

All of the above is hypothetical and Mr. Ignatieff does not actually have to face the electorate despite all his mistakes and difficulties. He actually escaped this week with no election. As I said at the outset: a charmed life. Circumstances could yet make him prime minister, despite his own best efforts to derail his campaign to get to 24 Sussex Drive.

NDP Leadership Race in Manitoba

Greg Selinger will be the next premier of Manitoba. This contest cinches it:

WINNIPEG — Steve Ashton got the morning headline, but Greg Selinger seems to have won most of the NDP leadership convention delegates that were up for grabs in Inkster constituency last night.