New Poll on Manitoba Election

The Probe research poll on the Manitoba election began to be released tonight with leadership approval numbers.

Gary Doer's ratings top the the field:

A poll commissioned by the Winnipeg Free Press and Global Television has Premier Gary Doer as the only leader considered to be performing well by a majority of Manitobans during this provincial election campaign.

Fifty-four per cent of respondents to a recent telephone survey of 800 Manitobans said they rated Doer's campaign performance as "excellent" or "good."

Only 31 per cent rated Doer's performance as "fair" or "poor."

Not so for Tory leader Hugh McFadyen or Liberal leader Jon Gerrard.

TC's view is that in elections party preference numbers are the much better predictor of the outcome on voting day but the leadership numbers are generally at least consistent with the outcome, if not a precise means of forecasting the distribution of seats on election day. It seems likely the party preference numbers will be out tomorrow night.