New Environics Poll

A new Environics poll out today reports a close race between the Conservatives and Liberals and substantial gains for the Greens, apparently at the expense mainly of the NDP but I would say also of the Liberals. I do think Green support tends to be overstated in polls because of a substantial percentage of its base is of the young alienated non-voting type.

Despite their gains, my forecast model continues to predict that the Greens would not win any seats (a topic explored more fully here). When it comes to winning seats, voting Green is simply ineffective. The Greens would benefit greatly from proportional representation.

The results:

Conservative - 34
Liberal - 32
NDP - 14
BQ - 8
Green - 11

Projected Seats

Conservative - 127
Liberal - 119
NDP - 13
BQ - 48
Green - 0
Other - 1

A regionally concentrated party, the BQ, with less national support than the Greens, can win 48 seats while the Greens get nothing.