The attack ads on Dion imply that he does. If the budget includes tax cuts and a strong effort to woo Quebec, the question arises, why fire off all this political ammunition if the election is not until next year. Harper's statement implying he did want an election made me think immediately that it was what is called in football a misdirection play. If you parse his words he simply observes that he, Harper, has no "incentive" to want an early election. I focused in my earlier post on the opposition but if the government wants an election, they can likely engineer a Commons defeat.
A new CROP poll in Quebec suggests the Liberals are on the verge of being able to win in Quebec - the Liberals lead the PQ by three points 37 to 34. My seat estimate has the PQ ahead of the Liberals 61 to 59, a minority government, but this is the strongest they have been in a long time. With PQ Leader André Boisclair's reputation continuing to diminish, this spring may look to Charest like the time to go.
That would put off a federal vote in all probability to June.