There are two tracking polls in this election, one from SES for CPAC, the other from Strategic Counsel for the Globe/CTV. Both show the Liberals ahead but little apparent impact from the campaign. The commentary from the pollsters strikes me as being for the benefit of making news for their respective media, and overstates the significance of what is really happneing. The data regionally do show significant variations between the two pollsters with SES showing more favourable numbers for the Liberals.
In any event current preferences are weak regardless of distribution. I don't think the public is yet focused so the numbers are a benchmark but little else at this stage. I continue to think the television debates this time have the potential to have a great impact. They begin December 15.