Saturday, November 26, 2005

Two New Polls Can't Agree on B.C.

There are two new polls out today - from Ekos and Ipsos-Reid - with completely different media spins (see the poll links below to the Star and the Gazette). I just want to note the contradictory findings for B.C. with respect to the Liberals and Conservatives. Ekos reports that it finds: L-43, C-21, NDP-33. On the other hand Ipsos-Reid says it is the Conservatives who are surging in B.C., and the current party preferences are L-26, C-33, NDP-33. Only the NDP numbers create some resemblance between the two polls. Certainly the most intriguing province.

Added note: I estimate the Ekos poll size as about 105-110 while the Ipsos-Reid sample is 117. With sample sizes that small the possibility of large errors is in my view considerable. That is one reason that I like to aggregate and average. If we average these two polls, we get L - 34.5, C - 27, & NDP - 33.

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