Monday, October 31, 2005

Gomery and the Goblins of the Polls

It is both Halloween and the eve before Gomery. There is much expectation in the air.

I propose to simply lay down a couple of bench marks tonight. First, the weighted average of the three most recent national polls:

Liberal - 38.4; Conservative - 28.0; NDP 17.0; BQ - 12.0; Green - 3.6.

And a seat calculation based on a weighted average of the three most recent polls where we have a regional breakout:

Liberal - 146; Conservative - 78; NDP- 22; BQ - 62.

Things have been drifting the Liberals way in recent months (although no majority) but it is not clear if public opinion at the moment has any solid foundations.

The numbers that cause my eyebrows to arch at the moment are comparatively strong Liberal statistics on the prairies. My intuitive reaction is to give them as much credence as the ghosts and goblins. We shall see.

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