Wednesday, May 11, 2005

Which poll should one believe?

There were two polls out today - one from Strategic Counsel for Globe/CTV and one from Decima Research - with contradictory findings. Strategic Counsel had the Conservatives ahead with 30% with the Liberals at 27% and the NDP 20% while Decima had a Liberal lead of 37% to 28% for the Conservatives and 18% for the NDP.

What to believe about this? I would say we can take our guidance from the real behaviour of the parties. The Conservatives and Bloc can't wait to get an election underway, while the Liberals continously seek ways to avoid it. Says something doesn't it.

The NDP is playing an above the partisan brawl role that may be slowly building up some real benefits for them that would come to a fruition in an election. Commenting in the Globe on his firm's poll, Allan Gregg said "While it's far from a groundswell of Layton-mania, there's some fairly good news in here..."

My own impression of Layton's performance in the House (and more generally in all his public appearances) has been improving in the past two months. I hear he has some new communications advisors. Whatever the reason, he is coming across as a more serious and credible leader than he appeared earlier in the parliamentary session when he tended to be too hyperbolic and partisan.

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