New Reid Poll

So the Liberals are ahead after poll after poll telling us they were behind? A Reid poll released June 22, 2004 has the Liberals at 34, the Conservatives at 28 and the NDP at 16. My seat calculation based on this is Liberals -125, Conservatives – 96, NDP – 19, BQ – 67. This would leave the Liberals and NDP combined short of a majority.

Liberal strength is based on a huge margin in Ontario seats. The NDP’s weakness is based on the fact that they are very weak in every region except Ontario. However, all the error margins in the regional numbers are very high – the smallest is ± 5.4% in Ontario. It is the national number that is striking. It does suggest that the election remains too close to call and we may not really know the outcome until they take the ballots out of the box.