Monday, June 28, 2004

Closing tick

Sometimes one can see the equivalent of the stock market's closing tick in politics. It is definitely there I think in the last few polls out of Quebec that show a trend back to the Liberals. Combined with the silent federalist vote, a well-established phenomenon, it could make for at least a modest disappointment for Mr. Duceppe.

The final polls published in the campaign finished calling people on Thursday night, so any effect from the weekend won't show up until tonight.

I did just hear this afternoon about some fragmentary confidential polling that is a little hard to interpret, but it suggests that the Conservatives may be just a little weaker, and the Liberals a little stronger, than the closing polls reported. And the race is close enough that, if this information reflects a real trend, then the Conservative minority pointed to by the weekend polls may turn out to have been a mirage.

In the end I am just curious to know how it turns out.

Once digested, I will write some analysis of the results and own up to how well (or poorly) the model performed.

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