Manitoba polls point in the direction of an NDP win

Two polls with conflicting results were released in Manitoba today.  One was a phone poll by Viewpoints Research for CJOB, which reported 41% for the NDP, 32% for the PCs and 5% for the Liberals with 19% undecided.  This gives the NDP about 51% of the decided vote with the Tories at 40%.

By contrast another survey, an online poll by Environics, found the PCs in a narrow lead 45% to 42% over the NDP with the Liberals at 10%.  The clashing methodologies should be noted. Online polls have had some  real problems, so there is a need to be cautious in interpreting the results. UPDATE: TC goofed - the reference I made previously to real success in the U.S. was to interactive voice recognition polls.

Taken together, however, this polling data as well as earlier polls point in the direction of an NDP victory with a reduced majority.  Even in the Environics poll Selinger has a higher approval rating than opponent Huge McFadyen (54% approval compared to 44%). It must also be remembered that the NDP has a more efficiently distributed vote. Large majorities in the rural southwest "waste" more votes for the Conservatives than comparable NDP margins in the city, and the NDP controls the small population northern ridings.  TC estimates that the PCs likely need a four to five point lead to be certain of winning.

Liberal support is so weak that the party may well face a shutout (as TC noted on Saturday).  One can see on this map of the individual polls from the 2007 election results imposed on the new electoral boundaries that the Liberal polls in northwest Winnipeg are now split between Tyndall Park and the Maples, which should deliver both ridings to the NDP.  If Jon Gerrard loses River Heights that would give us a majority government for certain (even if the margin is narrow).

This is the last week of the campaign and we should still see polls from Angus Reid and Probe Research so there will be more information to consider before voting day.

Ontario and Manitoba elections - no obvious winner in sight.

The first thing that needs to be said about these two elections is that by the usual rules of politics both incumbents should have been heading for defeat from the outset.

In the case of Ontario the Liberals are endeavouring to win a third term with a leader with low approval ratings, a year after introducing an unpopular new tax, the HST, that applies to many more goods and services than the old provincial sales tax.  Third terms are highly unusual, while the party that wins the election usually has a well regarded leader, so the Liberals started out with three strikes against them.

In Manitoba the NDP has a new leader in Greg Selinger who, despite his considerable virtues, is less popular than predecessor Gary Doer (however, he has a much higher approval rating than Dalton McGuinty).  And the NDP is trying to win a fourth term, something that has not been done in Manitoba since Duff Roblin.  Winning multiple terms is difficult in most places simply because all administrations eventually accumulate grievances directed at them from various sectors of the public.

There is less than two weeks to go in both campaigns. The clear narrative for both is that they are close but both incumbents could win re-election (in Ontario's case likely as a minority government).

Ontario
A large sample poll in the Toronto Star today makes it clear that the race is extremely close (similar findings appeared in other polls last week).  The Star poll reports that the survey would result in 47 ridings each for the Conservatives and Liberals and 13 for the NDP. The poll is large enough to have results for every riding.  However, some of the results reported don't look right to TC. My forecast model suggests that a tie vote would produce an advantage for the Liberals as they have had the more efficiently distributed vote in the past. In addition TC would expect to see more seats for the NDP than just 13. But it is tight enough to go the either way and many individual riding contests must be very close.

Despite the Liberals' handicaps it appears that attacks on PC leader Tim Hudak (see, for example, this web site: hazardoushudak.ca) have taken their toll. This Ipsos poll from earlier this month reported that voters preferred McGuinty to Hudak as premier.  The disapproval of McGuinty found in the survey noted above suggests that it may be a case of who is the least preferred. 

Both Tim Hudak and NDP leader Andrea Horvath were not well known coming into the campaign.  The NDP has been in the range of 23 to 26 per cent support, well above the 16.8 per cent the NDP won in 2007.  The NDP's poll numbers this summer look like a spillover from the federal campaign and the outpouring of emotion for Jack Layton, so Horvath still must close the deal with voters to do well. However, this Ipsos poll released a few days ago suggests she is making progress.  The poll also makes it clear that Rob Ford has become a huge liability for the PCs in Toronto. His unpopularity could cost them dearly in this election:

A majority (53%) of 1,719 Torontonians polled say Rob Ford being mayor of Toronto makes them less likely to vote for the Progressive Conservatives, while just 9% say they’re more likely to vote for the PC Party

The television debate coming Sept. 27 could make a significant difference. It represents an enormous challenge and opportunity for both Hudak and Horvath.  I suspect there is less on the line for McGuinty but he still must perform well given the tight race.

Manitoba 
Two significant developments yesterday: a poll reporting that a majority think the NDP deserve re-election and a reasonably successful television debate appearance for Greg Selinger.

The most memorable aspect of the debate was Selinger successfully forcing Liberal leader Jon Gerrard to state that he may have had made "a mistake" in voting against a Selinger budget.  Even though PC leader Hugh McFadyen was on the sidelines for this exchange, it was quite important as the role of the Liberal vote in Manitoba elections is critical given that many federal Liberals support the NDP  provincially.

There is some evidence that Liberals are in deep trouble in this election, and the beleaguered party could lose both its seats. Former MLA Kevin Lamoureux has moved to the House of Commons, and his seat has been split in two by redistribution (both are likely to go NDP) while the PCs are making a strong effort to unseat Gerrard in River Heights.

TC thinks the PC's biggest problem may be that they start out so far behind in the City of Winnipeg where they only held four seats entering the campaign.  In 1995 when the party last won an election they won 14 seats in the city.  The PCs recognize this. The Free Press had an article on the PC effort to win the south end riding of Seine River.  TC's view is that the PC's must win that riding and several others in the city (such as Kirkfield Park, Southdale and St. Norbert plus others) to have a chance of winning.

Nevetheless, the PCs have all the advantages that accrue to being able to campaign on "time for a change", and a leader who is showing more poise in his second campaign.  The election outcome remains uncertain.

Ontario polls point to Conservative minority government

The two surveys out this week provide more evidence that a close outcome is a distinct possibility and that means minority government.

The Angus Reid poll points to a thin Conservative majority of 56 seats. However, just one more point for the Liberals would turn that into a minority. The Forum Research poll would give the Cs 52 seats while 54 seats are needed for a bare majority.

The NDP was strong in both surveys and is currently running well ahead of their pace in 2007.

Post-Layton Poll

The new Harris-Decima poll illustrates that the wave of national mourning that accompanied Jack Layton's passing has produced a strong political impact. While the effect is probably going to be temporary, the NDP and Conservatives were tied in this poll at 33% each while the Liberals came in at 21%.

My forecast model suggests it would produce a House of Commons of 131 Conservatives, 118 New Democrats, 58 Liberals 4 Bloc and 1 Green.

Perhaps this is the first sign of real weakness in the Harper majority.

Obama's Economic Dilemma

I think Jon Chait gets Obama's problem with jobs and Congress exactly right:

...if Obama potentially had the votes in Congress to pass another stimulus, it would be worth taking an unpopular vote in order to rescue the economy. Since Obama does not and will not have those votes, he needs to conceive of his plan as a political message. There is no point in holding a message vote when the message is unpopular. 

This seems to be a reality liberals have trouble acknowledging. There are a lot of issues where the public agrees with the left. Economic stimulus does not appear to be one of them. Now, public opinion is fairly hazy and ill-informed about this, and certain elements of economic stimulus can command majorities. But the passage of the first stimulus, at the height of Obama's popularity, shows pretty clearly that people instinctively think that, when the economy is terrible, having the government spend a lot of new money is not going to help. That they're wrong doesn't really matter for the purposes of this question.

The administration floated the idea of using a mortgage refinance plan that would not need Congressional approval and might provide some stimulus, but would still need acceptance by a regulator who is not answerable to the Obama administration. He needs several more ideas like this.

This is the nub of the problem. Obama needs to find some way now to rectify the problem that arises from the inadequacy of stimulus plans two years ago, and he is likely going to have to do it without Congress. One way or the other he needs a great deal of luck in restarting growth, or he will face an enormous obstacle to re-election (he could still get re-elected if the Republicans move too far to the right).

An addendum: a few weeks back Brad Delong summed up the mistakes and missed opportunities of Obama's first year or two in office and what he should do now. It is worth reading.

Overall, it is clear that Obama faces immense obstacles to restarting economic growth. It is not all clear how he gets the U.S. economy moving again, especially given the loony political opposition he faces from Republicans.

Ontario headed for minority government

Two polls out this month (Ipsos and Nanos) strongly suggest that the next Ontario election will produce a minority government. Spring polls suggested a PC majority so it is the Liberals who have momentum. It looks like negative ads like these are taking their toll on Mr. Hudak.

My seat estimates suggest the current polls would produce an exceptionally close result. It is not clear which party would be in first place.

More on Turmel

It is unfortunate that Chantal Hébert was on vacation when the Turmel story broke.  Her column today is a gem:

The reality is that those who ran for the NDP in the last campaign and the vast majority of those who voted for them did so not to revisit the debates of the past but because they wanted to move on.

Many wanted to resume contributing more directly to Canada’s federal life to help craft a progressive alternative to the Conservatives.

A survey commissioned by the now-defunct Canadian Unity Information Office a few years ago revealed that a majority of Quebecers refused to identify themselves as federalists or sovereigntists.

Large numbers of them want out of that particular box....

To all intents and purposes, those who leaked details of interim leader Nycole Turmel’s past links with the Bloc are playing a longer game than that of embarrassing the NDP at a time of relative fragility.

For the moribund Bloc, the best hope for revival lies with a successful demonstration that there is no room within Canada’s national parties for nationalist Quebecers — or at least not unless they are willing to atone for the way they exercised their voting franchise in the past.

It looks like sovereigntist strategists can count on outside help to achieve their purpose.

Alone of all members of Parliament, Quebec’s New Democrats are being asked to account for their past political leanings.

Some self-appointed high priests of federalism have gone as far as suggesting that a public recanting of anything that smacks of a sovereigntist belief is also in order.

The editors of the Globe and Mail, Liberal leader Bob Rae and Stéphan Dion fit the definition of "high priests" as far as TC is concerned. They should be ashamed of themselves.

Another op-ed on the subject worth reading is this one published earlier in the Toronto Star by University of Ottawa academic Claude Denis. An excerpt:

What political planet do English-speaking Canadians live on?

The majority of francophone Quebecers have voted for the Bloc Québécois for the past 20 years. A strong majority of Quebec francophones voted “yes” to sovereignty in 1995. Most of the Quebec left has been sovereignist for a good four decades. So if you’re a francophone Quebecer and you’re on the left, chances are you are or have been a supporter of at least one sovereignist party.

None of this is news or surprising. Is there something not clear? Nycole Turmel is a left-wing, francophone Quebecer. She has been socially and politically active for 30 years. Of course she has had ties to the sovereignist movement.