Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Post-Layton Poll

The new Harris-Decima poll illustrates that the wave of national mourning that accompanied Jack Layton's passing has produced a strong political impact. While the effect is probably going to be temporary, the NDP and Conservatives were tied in this poll at 33% each while the Liberals came in at 21%.

My forecast model suggests it would produce a House of Commons of 131 Conservatives, 118 New Democrats, 58 Liberals 4 Bloc and 1 Green.

Perhaps this is the first sign of real weakness in the Harper majority.