Converging Numbers

Numbers are beginning to converge in this campaign. I have done a weighted average of the Ekos, Léger Marketing and Ipsos-Reid polls released this week, and applied my seat forecaster.

There is a clear Conservative lead that would produce a minority government with the NDP almost holding the balance of power.

The numbers are:

Conservative – 127
Liberal – 92
NDP – 27
BQ – 62

The problem for the Conservatives is holding this lead. My guess from looking at the polls is that they have minimal upside potential. They are already at 40% in English Canada and while they have been successful in Quebec in taking support from both the Bloc and the Liberals, they don’t have much room left for growth. In any event, the Conservatives are a long way short of a majority.

Now they begin to face the questioning. Today’s column in the Globe by Jeffrey Simpson directly challenges their likely budget path, and the Star’s Thomas Walkom has an excellent assessment of Harper, which notes the following from the Conservative Leader’s statement that supposedly endorses medicare: We must treat all patients equally for essential health-care services, regardless of ability to pay; anything less is un-Canadian. Sounds good but there is a tiny almost unnoticed qualifier, “essential health-care services”. When a National Citizens’ Coalition type conservative uses a phrase like that, it is potentially weighted with great meaning. The other parties should be asking pointed questions about this.

I noted earlier today the admission by the Conservatives that they would eliminate one of Martin’s tax cuts. Conservative bloggers like this one protest that this is all “much ado about nothing”. Why? Because in his December 1 2005 statement promising a GST cut Harper said: We would suspend their future measures in order to deliver broad-based and responsible tax relief…. These are pure weasel words that leave the impression that only some future tax cuts would be cancelled. I suspect that many of the other Conservative press releases are full of similar language.

This is precisely the sort of campaign tactic that, whatever its short term benefits, is sure to bring grief in the long run should they make it into government.

It is clear that the damage to the Liberals is mainly the result of the income trust affair feeding the ‘Liberal corruption’ narrative. It came at a time when Canadians had just tuned in to the campaign and become engaged, and it is mainly helping the Conservatives who have trumpeted this theme far more strongly than the NDP.

The Conservative lead is deeply threatening not just to the Liberal government, but also to the NDP. Strategic voting would not show up in the polls at this time. Remember most of those decisions were made in the last weekend of the 2004 campaign.

However, if there becomes a consensus that the Conservatives would win anyway that might deflate some of the strategic voting, and if the race ends up being exceedingly close between the Liberals and the Conservatives, that represents an ideal scenario for a third party provided its support is not bled away.

I do think the Globe’s lead story today on the Conservative campaign and its successes is worth reading. I think the one part of the Harper campaign that impresses me the most is its strategic use of small, targeted promises aimed at either a particular segment of the electorate (the article mentions fishers) or is of symbolic value (for example the urban transit pass tax credit) even if it isn’t actually of much real value.

In a real sense it is the end of week one of a three week campaign. There are two to go.

Liberal Troubles/ Conservative Weakness

There have not been many political campaigns that have encountered as many misfortunes as the current Paul Martin Liberals have. While many of their problems are of their own making, scandal investigations and headlines beyond their control seem dominant. It is therefore a sure indication of the fundamental weakness of the Harper Conservatives that they are merely statistically tied with the Liberals rather than way ahead.

I feel confident that if Joe Clark or Bill Davis or John Tory or some other moderate were leading the party, they would be virtually coasting home to victory.

But in fact it is Stephen (hidden agenda) Harper at the helm, and so the election is still competitive, and more than ever dependent on next week’s debates.

Today’s SES poll, which continues to trouble me (see here), tells us that the race is simply too close to call.

My seat estimate based on today’s poll is:

Conservatives – 113
Liberals – 107
NDP – 27
BQ – 61

It is partly an impression, but I am increasingly of the mind that even if Harper does finish first and form a government, he is laying the foundation for trouble of all sorts after forming a government. For one thing, I suspect his budget numbers don’t add up. This matters a great deal if it is a minority since an early meeting with the electorate again is a distinct possibility if not probability.

UPDATE: This admission by the Conservatives that they would scrap one of the Martin tax cuts having previously given the impression that they would not is an example of what I am talking about. I have the feeling they are not being candid at all about a lot of plans that could mean trouble for them, especially in government.

Spring Forward/ Fall Back

The Conservatives having leaped forward over the past few days, have suddenly fallen back a little in today's SES poll.

From 128 seats yesterday they would now win only 119. SES calls it a statistical tie. On this score, they are right.

Wednesday January 4 SES Poll

In today’s SES poll the Conservatives have a clear lead. The results are:

Conservative – 36
Liberal – 33
NDP – 15
BQ – 13
Green – 4

In seats, my estimate based on SES is:

Conservative – 128
Liberal – 98
NDP – 17
BQ – 66

Intuitively, I have reacted to the SES poll during this campaign with a good deal of scepticism. I just find some of the numbers they produce very difficult to believe. For example, earlier in the campaign, I was sure they had found too many Liberals in the West. Similarly, I think they are generally underestimating support for the NDP. These are just hunches. The general trend away from the Liberals and towards the Conservatives is confirmed by other polling data but the specifics leaving me feeling doubtful about their overall reading.

For example, looking at today’s poll, my intuition is that they have a reasonable estimate for the Liberals in the West, but too much support for the Conservatives and not enough for the NDP.

I also note that on the equivalent day of the 2004 election campaign, June 9, the national SES numbers were:

Conservative – 37
Liberal – 32
NDP – 17
BQ – 10
Green – 5

My sense of this campaign (endorsed my others directly involved) is that the public has not until now been engaged, but with the last three weeks beginning earlier this week that is all changing. There is still a long way to go and a new round of leaders’ debates next week.

Scandals to the South

For all the fuss being made about the "scandals" in Canada, they don't begin to compare to the emerging Abramoff affair in the U.S. Jack Abramoff, a lobbyist with close and numerous ties to Republicans in the U.S. Congress (including former House Majority Leader Tom Delay) entered a number of guilty pleas today as part of a deal with prosecutors. Why? Well look at this excerpt from the Washington Post:

The guilty plea by Abramoff provides a major boost to federal prosecutors in an influence-peddling investigation that could become one of the largest corruption scandals in recent memory, involving as many as a half dozen lawmakers, a former top official at the Department of Interior and former and current congressional aides.

The rest of the story is here.

Liberal Swoon

An email reminded me today that the Ipsos-Reid poll released just before Christmas was little different from the one released on New Year's Day.

Nonetheless, it is clear from looking at the combination of the SES polls, today's Strategic Counsel poll and the Ipsos-Reid poll that the Liberals have slipped, perhaps significantly. This campaign is beginning to resemble 2004 in this respect. Will we now see the mid-campaign Liberal recovery we saw last time?

Putting the Conservatives Ahead...

A new Ipsos-Reid poll now has the Conservatives one point ahead (within the margin of error of course) of the Liberals. However, it is not all good news for Mr. Harper. Although the Conservatives are ahead in Ontario in this survey, they are in third place in B.C. And a Decima Survey that preceded Ipsos-Reid still reports the Liberals ahead.

My seat calculation based on Ipsos-Reid is Conservative – 112, Liberal – 91, NDP – 39, BQ – 66. This would permit a Conservative minority government to achieve majorities by combining with any one of the opposition parties.

This does set up the classic strategic voting paradigm: a narrow Conservative lead, a possible Tory government but a plentiful supply of NDP first choices that can be appealed to by the Liberals to switch. To be activated strategic voting will take more than just this one poll. But the 2004 end of campaign scenario is beginning to appear again.

One should note that Ipsos-Reid polls in this election have generally found more support for the Conservatives than others, as the current comparison with Decima illustrates.