Is it time for a Liberal majority?

1965 Liberal Campaign Button

A federal election is coming and the widely mooted purpose for this campaign is a desire by the Trudeau government to win a majority of seats in the House of Commons. It brings immediately to mind a similar effort in 1965 when Walter Gordon and Keith Davey persuaded Lester Pearson to call an election for November 8, 1965. 

That particular effort failed, humiliating its sponsors - one of the more notorious political failures in Canadian history, leaving behind a button to remind us of the hubris. A few years later in 1968 Pearson's successor, Pierre Trudeau, called a snap election after winning the Liberal leadership, winning a majority. He would repeat the success in 1974, an election engineered for the same purpose,  following a near death performance in the 1972 election.

The record of minority governments seeking to become majorities is mixed. Probably the most spectacular success was that of John Diefenbaker in 1957 when he called the 1958 election and won one of Canada's largest majorities ever. A year later Manitoba PC Premier Duff Roblin engineered his defeat in the legislature, turning his minority government into a majority in the ensuing election. On the other hand, Stephen Harper was handed a setback when he called the 2008 election not long after legislating a fixed election date law that he promptly ignored. He saw an opportunity for a majority but it faded during the campaign; he wound up with a minority. 

We have seen a pattern of success and failure among provincial governments as well. Bill Davis failed in Ontario in 1977 to attain a majority (seeking to reverse the minority outcome in 1975) , while Manitoba PC Premier Gary Filmon won a snap election in September 1990 following two yars in a minority. Quebec Liberal Premier Jean Charest won a majority the same way in 2008 following being reduced to a minority in 2007. Nova Scotia PC Premier Rodney Macdonald tried for a majority in 2006 but didn't get it, and lost outright to the NDP in 2009. The New Brunswick PC government of Blaine Higgs converted a minority into a majority this year, while John Horgan did the same thing for the NDP last year in BC. There have been others as well.  

One conclusion I reach is that, despite current appearances, a Liberal majority is not a lock. I averaged a few recent polls and the seats projected; the estimate based on that average is a Liberal majority of 177 (101 C, 36 NDP, 24 Bloc and 1 Green) but the dynamics of an election campaign could easily change  that. Indeed, 177 is a marginal majority and by no means certain. The number of previous attempts  by  others nonetheless suggest that the incentive to seek a majority is strong and elections called to win a majority in similar circumstances will continue in the future.

One final point: there is much discussion at the moment about whether there should be an election. Some argue that an unnecessary election (and I agree it is unnecessary) will hurt the Liberals. Some cite the example of David Peterson's early election call in 1990 leading to the victory of Bob Rae's NDP.  I don't think it will be an issue, and it will be forgotten once the campaign is underway. There was a poll early on reporting the Ontario Liberals way ahead in 1990. But there was a great deal of public opiniton research that was not public at the time that suggested the Peterson government was quite unpopular (See the book Not Without Cause: David Peterson's Fall from Grace for details). I think an election will be called on Sunday, August 15 and whatever else may be said, the fact of calling the election will not be a significant election issue.  But Justin Trudeau's majority project, which looks strong now, could fail.