Anatomy of the NDP Surge

The political scene in Canada has changed dramatically since April. Around the time of the Alberta election it became clear that the NDP was surging in the polls nationally. The upward movement was discernible earlier, particularly in BC and Quebec. Nationally, it was the Alberta election that had a catalytic, transformative impact to the benefit of the NDP.  The Alberta surprise suggests that there was potential NDP support across Canada held back by pessimism about the party's prospects.

I present detailed charts (below the analysis) on changes in average poll support both nationally and regionally, starting with a summary chart that outlines the shift in average support that has taken place since April.

Several observations about what has happened:

1. The NDP has made slightly greater gains from the Conservatives than the Liberals (see details in chart) and even appear to have taken some support from the Green Party.

2. For the NDP Quebec is the key to their potential electoral success. If the recent gains are to matter they must be able to push back the recent boost for the Bloc, which emerged after the leadership change that brought back Gilles Duceppe. Many analysts have suggested that the Conservatives might have potential in Quebec. Indeed there was some growth in support for Harper following the Charlie Hebdo attacks in Paris (not the attacks in Canada) raised the profile of terrorism in the province. However, the Conservatives have now fallen back and are close to their 2011 support. The Liberals have gained but as has been the case since 1984 are largely confined to the English speaking parts of Quebec.

3. A second key to the election will be Ontario where something like a three way split has emerged. The NDP has made significant gains, more from the Conservatives than the Liberals. A stagnating economy with limited wage growth, all over the province but especially in the southwest, is likely hurting the Harper Conservatives who regard their economic competence as a key aspect of their reputation. The Liberals remain relatively strong here despite losses. A shift in focus to national issues could still help them. For the moment Harper's growing unpopularity is helping the NDP in Ontario.

However, I suspect the Liberals have been hurt by the Wynne government's plans to privatize Hydro One (the retail and transmission part of the old Ontario Hydro). One cannot overstate how unpopular a move this is. When the previous initiative to privatize hydro was cancelled midstream by the Ernie Eves PC government, one Conservative advisor commented privately at the time that it was the most unpopular thing done by an Ontario government since Bob Rae's first budget. The hydro privatization inevitably helps the NDP.

4. The Liberals have slipped in Atlantic Canada but have encountered greater losses out west.

5. B.C. has become a particular source of strength for the NDP. I currently project the NDP to take more than half the seats there.

6. While Manitoba and Saskatchewan are of little significance to the national picture, the Liberals are poised to win four seats in Manitoba, while the NDP are likely to gain one seat in Manitoba and two or more seats in Saskatchewan.

7. Overall the June polls would put the NDP in first place with 126 seats to 116 for the Conservatives and 92 for the Liberals, but shifting in the polls continued during the month so this estimate likely understates the true picture at the moment.

Conclusions:

Apart from the polls the signs of a Conservative defeat are accumulating. One must add to the sources of decay I noted at the end of May that record numbers of incumbent Conservative MPs are not running again. The October 19 election is less than four months away. The opposition may still be split between the Liberals and the NDP, but it is becoming remarkably clear that much of the Canadian electorate wants Harper out. A new EKOS poll is due out today or tomorrow.  A preview came from Frank Graves in a tweet where he said the poll would report the "second worst direction of government in a decade".

Although Harper looks like he is headed to defeat the opposition remains significantly split between Liberals and the NDP.  Regardless of who has led in the past two years, one constant I have found in estimating seat totals for the parties has been that the NDP plus the Liberals equals a majority. That remains today the most likely reality following October 19.

Poll Change in Canada and Provinces/Regions April to June
	C.P.C	NDP	Liberal	Green	Bloc
Canada	-4.6	9.7	-3.5	-2.1	1.0
Atlantic	-1.6	7.4	-2.5	-3.1
Quebec	-5.7	6.5	-3.4	-1.2	4.0
Ontario	-5.7	11.6	-3.4	-1.7
Man. & Sask	-4.9	9.6	-5.2	0.3
Alberta	1.7	6.4	-5.1	-1.6
British Columbia	-3.8	13.4	-5.2	-3.6

Averages and change / Canada and Province/Regions April to June

	Canada	C.P.C	NDP	Liberal	Green	Bloc
	April	33.1	23.1	30.5	7.1	4.3
	May	30.5	28.6	28.5	6.6	4.0
	June	28.5	32.8	27.0	5.0	5.3
Change	April to June	-4.6	9.7	-3.5	-2.1	1.0
	Atlantic	C.P.C	NDP	Liberal	Green
	April	25.1	20.3	45.2	7.8
	May	23.8	23.6	43.6	7.1
	June	23.6	27.7	42.7	4.7
Change	April to June	-1.6	7.4	-2.5	-3.1
	Quebec	C.P.C	NDP	Liberal	Green	Bloc
	April	21.4	28.4	26.2	4.7	17.8
	May	16.0	35.7	25.5	4.9	16.1
	June	15.7	34.8	22.8	3.5	21.8
Change	April to June	-5.7	6.5	-3.4	-1.2	4.0
	Ontario	C.P.C	NDP	Liberal	Green
	April	37.5	19.9	33.6	6.6
	May	34.5	24.4	33.4	6.2
	June	31.8	31.5	30.2	4.8
Change	April to June	-5.7	11.6	-3.4	-1.7
	MB & SK	C.P.C	NDP	Liberal	Green
	April	42.0	20.1	30.7	5.7
	May	40.9	24.7	26.0	5.4
	June	37.1	29.6	25.5	6.0
Change	April to June	-4.9	9.6	-5.2	0.3
	Alberta	C.P.C	NDP	Liberal	Green
	April	44.8	23.3	22.9	5.4
	May	48.9	26.5	15.9	5.3
	June	46.5	29.7	17.8	3.8
Change	April to June	1.7	6.4	-5.1	-1.6
	British Columbia	C.P.C	NDP	Liberal	Green
	April	31.6	24.2	29.0	12.9
	May	28.4	32.0	26.5	11.4
	June	27.8	37.6	23.8	9.3
Change	April to June	-3.8	13.4	-5.2	-3.6