Tuesday, September 09, 2014

Scottish Referendum

The Scottish referendum, scheduled for September 18, is getting a great deal of attention with a recent YouGov poll showing a one point 'Yes' lead, which in real terms is a statistical tie.

TC recommends reading Claire Durand's blog Ah les sondages on the referendum. She is one of Canada's best experts on polling in Quebec meaning that an independence referendum in Scotland is a natural topic for her and she has been writing about it.  Her latest was today. Here is the key excerpt:
If I use only the polls conducted since the beginning of August, here is what I get. .... The Yes side is at about 47% and the No side at 53%.
You should read the whole post to understand her conclusion.