Tuesday, May 14, 2013

BC Election - Final Poll Average

I have averaged the final polls from BC including all those released as of the morning of election day.

The results are:

BC Liberal NDP BC Cons. Green Other Sample Margin of Error
Closing average 35.7 43.2 7.1 10.9 3.0      5,928 1.3

In seats this yields 50 NDP, 34 BC Liberals and one other.  However, although my estimate model doesn't show it, I would not be surprised if the Greens picked up one or two.  The ridings they would be most likely to win would come from the BC Liberals.

My seat projection also shows six very close races including Premier Clark's seat of Vancouver-Point Grey.