Monday, August 13, 2012

Quebec election - my initial take

It is much too early to get a good take on the Quebec election. 

However, there is reason to conclude that it will be an indecisive result. The choice is between an unpopular incumbent Liberal administration that appears to be calling the election early to avoid the fallout of an inquiry into corruption allegations, an opposition PQ whose leader suffered numerous defections from her party and caucus over the past few years, and a small 'c' conservative third party, the CAQ, led by an uncharismatic former PQ minister, who now implies that he is no longer interested in sovereignty but is trying to straddle the nationalist fence while embracing bizarre policy planks.

The eventual post-Labour day outcome seems a long way off.

This seat-by-seat projection from Canadian Election Atlas seems as reasonable as one might expect at this stage, and the totals of Liberal - 44, PQ - 57, CAQ - 17, Quebec Solidaire - 2 and Close - 33 seem reasonable but by no means predictive of the final count.