Sunday, March 15, 2009

Recent Polls in Canada

There was a new poll release by Decima on March 13 that has the Liberals leading. Here are the national numbers plus the projected seat totals from my forecast model:

Cons. 32 114
Liberal 33 121
NDP 14 22
Bloc 9 50
Green 10 0

The Liberals are edging into minority government territory. Overall the numbers have not strayed much from the October 2008 election except in Quebec where Harper's support has cratered (other polls all confirm this). TC continues to expect further erosion of Conservative support as the recession deepens, a trend that personal insults directed at Ignatieff will not affect.

Decima seems to have a "house effect" of granting the Greens a bit too much support. There is no reason to think that Green support has grown 25% since the election but that is the implication of the poll. However, it is interesting that there remains significant Green support even while conventional wisdom has it that environmental concerns have evaporated in light of the downturn. This poll and others of recent vintage demonstrate this much at least. Supporting the Greens is for many, less a pure vote choice than a way of expressing concern about the environment.

There have been two other recent polls, one from Strategic Counsel and one from Ipsos (full details are behind a subscription wall), but there was about a month gap between them. Struggling media outlets may be having trouble coming up with the funds for polling, so we may see fewer in the coming months.

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