Wednesday, October 10, 2007

Tory/Tories trouble deeper than thought?.

There are indications the rout of the Conservatives may be greater than the final polls anticipate.

Democraticspace is hedging his final prediction here saying:

All of this is to say that even when there appears to be a consensus in the polls — in this case, showing a strong Liberal majority — there is the potential that it could break differently.

That’s why we provide ranges. Here are the best and worst case scenarios for each party as we see it:

LIBERAL 56-72 41.0-44.0%
PC 25-38 31.1-33.3%
NDP 9-15 16.7-17.9%
GREEN 0 5.9-6.7%

OTHERS 0 1.6-1.8%

So, when you sit back and watch the results come in tonight, keep in mind that nothing in ever certain. We’ve done our best to anticipate the range of possible outcomes, but in the end, as always, it all depends on you, the voters.

And the site has increased the Liberal total to 67. TC also has heard that internal Tory polling is showing them to be in worse shape than the public polls. They may be headed to the mid-twenties with dire consequences even for their already limited number of incumbents.

We will soon see.

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